Can we use knowledge of existing pest species distributions and associations to inform invasive species risk assessment?

This is not currently a major activity but we have worked on a number of research areas relating to invasive species over the years. The main work at present continues a collaboration from my time at CSIRO and aims to better understand what factors contribute to particular species becoming problem invasive pests and whether there are elements of the biology that enable us to predict this. One recent approach we have been exploring is the application of an artificial neural network (a SOM) to explore similarities in patterns of species assemblages across the globe to identify which species have the highest likelihood of establishment in a particular area and from where these species might come.

One of the rather cool insights revealed by this approach is that for a large country like the US, numerous high risk species have already established but have yet to spread amongst many of the states. This has interesting biosecurity implications because although there are many mechanisms in place to help prevent the initial arrival of exotic species into the country, relatively little attention is given to redistribution of species post-establishment.

Our key recent paper on this is:

  • Paini,D.R., Worner, S.P., Cook, D.C., De Barro, P.J. & Thomas, M.B. (2010). Threat of invasive pests from within national borders. Nature Communications 1:115.

Some other relevant papers include:

  • Cook, D.C., Fraser, R.W., Waage, J.K. & Thomas, M.B. (2011). Prioritising biosecurity investment between agricultural and environmental systems. Journal of Consumer Protection and Food Safety 6: S3–S13.
  • Paini, D.R., Worner, S.P., Cook, D.C., De Barro, P.J. & Thomas, M.B. (2010). Using a self organising map to predict invasive species: sensitivity to data errors and a comparison with expert opinion. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 290-298.
  • Engelhardt, K., Symstad, A., Prieur-Richard, A-H., Thomas, M.B. & Bunker, D.E. (2009). Opening communities to colonization – The impacts of invaders on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. In: Biodiversity, Ecosystem Functioning, and Human Wellbeing: An Ecological and Economic Perspective (S. Naeem, D. Bunker, A. Hector, M. Loreau and C. Perrings, eds.). Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp 217-229.
  • Yokomizo, H., Possingham, H.P., Thomas, M.B. & Buckley, Y.M. (2009). Managing the impact of invasive species: the value of knowing the density–impact curve. Ecological Applications 19: 376-386.
  • Baker, R.H.A., Black, R., Copp, G.H., Hulme, P.E. Haysom, K.A., Thomas, M.B. et al. (2008). Developing a risk assessment scheme for all UK non-native species. Neobiota 7: 46-57.
  • Cook, D.C., Thomas, M.B., Cunningham, S.A., Anderson, D.L. & De Barro, P.J. (2007). Predicting the economic impact of an invasive species on an ecosystem service. Ecological Applications 17: 1832-1840.
  • Thomas, M.B. & Reid, A.M. (2007). Are exotic natural enemies an effective means for controlling invasive plants? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22: 447-453.
  • van Lenteren, J.C., Babendreier, D., Bigler, F., Burgio, G., Hokkanen, H.M.T., Loomans, A., Menzler-Hokkanen, I., van Rijn, P.C.J., Thomas, M.B. & Tommasini, G. (2003). Environmental risk assessment of exotic natural enemies used in inundative biological control. BioControl 48: 3-38.
  • Lynch, L.D., Ives, A.R., Waage, J.K., Hochberg, M.E. & Thomas, M.B. (2002). The risks of biocontrol: transient impacts and minimum nontarget densities. Ecological Applications 12: 1872-1882.
  • Willis, A.J., Thomas, M.B. & Lawton, J.H. (1999). Is the increased vigour of invasive weeds explained by a trade-off between growth and herbivore resistance? Oecologia 120: 588-594.
  • Thomas, M.B. & Willis, A.J. (1998). Biocontrol – risky but necessary? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 13: 325-329.